Benfica VS Barcelona Predictions
Benfica and Barcelona Reignite Champions League Scoring Spectacle
Estádio da Luz braces for another goal-laden chapter in European rivalry. Benfica host Barcelona in a Champions League round of 16 first leg, revisiting their nine-goal group-stage thriller. The Catalans aim to edge closer to ending a decade-long European title drought, while Benfica seek redemption after narrowly qualifying for the knockout phase.
Prediction
Over 2.5 goals full time, no clean sheet any half, Barca over 1.5 goals, over 7.5 corners and over 3.5 cards full time.
Data Analysis
Barcelona: Scored 18 goals in UCL group stage (2nd highest); unbeaten in 10 away games vs. Portuguese clubs.
Benfica: Required playoffs (4-3 vs. Monaco) to reach knockout stage; conceded 13 goals in six UCL matches.
xGA: Barcelona (1.1 per UCL game), Benfica (1.8 per UCL game).
What’s at Stake
Benfica: A strong showing could reignite their Liga Portugal title bid and validate European credentials.
Barcelona: Ending a 10-year UCL drought hinges on navigating this tie, alongside maintaining La Liga leadership.
Match Decider
Barcelona’s transition speed vs. Benfica’s defensive compactness. Benfica’s 4-3-3 struggles to contain wide threats, while Barcelona’s Raphinha and Yamal exploit full-back gaps, with Barcelona’s attacking trio in lethal form and Benfica missing key defensive personnel, the Catalans are poised to secure a vital away advantage. However, Benfica’s home resilience and Pavlidis’ clinical edge ensure a tense battle, setting the stage for a decisive Camp Nou leg.
Players to Watch Out For
Barcelona
Raphinha:
42 goal contributions this season (24 goals, 18 assists); two goals in previous Benfica clash.
Benfica
Vangelis Pavlidis:
8 UCL goals this campaign; key to testing Barcelona’s makeshift center-back pairing.
Players Out
Benfica:
Florentino Luis (thigh), Alexander Bah, Angel Di María, Renato Sanches.
Barcelona:
Andreas Christensen (calf), Marc-André ter Stegen, Marc Bernal.
Probable Line Up
Benfica (4-3-3): Trubin; Araújo, Otamendi, Silva, Carreras; Kökçü, Barreiro, Aursnes; Aktürkoglu, Pavlidis, Bruma.
Barcelona (4-2-3-1): Szczęsny; Koundé, Araújo, Cubarsí, Baldé; Pedri, De Jong; Yamal, Gavi, Raphinha; Lewandowski.
Form
Benfica: WWWWW (last five in all competitions).
Barcelona: WWLWW (last five in all competitions), including a 4-0 win over Real Sociedad.
Head to Head
Barcelona lead 4-2 in UCL meetings (10 total); won 5-4 in October’s group stage.
Benfica’s last home win vs. Spanish opposition: 2021 (vs. Atlético Madrid).
Key Stats
Average possession: Barcelona (63%), Benfica (49%).
Touches in opposition box: Barcelona (26.4 per UCL game), Benfica (18.9).
Defensive metrics: Benfica average 13.2 interceptions per UCL match; Barcelona concede 9.8 shots per game.
XGA and Performance Metrics
Benfica: 1.8 xGA per UCL game, 12.3 shots faced per match.
Barcelona: 1.1 xGA per UCL game, 8.4 shots faced per match.
Set-pieces: 29% of Benfica’s UCL goals from dead balls; Barcelona’s aerial duel success (58%) could neutralize this threat.